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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still