A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
